Colombia did an about-face at lightning-fast speed on accepting deportation flights in what President Donald Trump hailed as a victory for his “f— around and find out” [FAFO]-style of governing.
One of the first diplomatic spats of the new administration, Colombia’s stunt put on full display a souring of relations with what was until recently one of the U.S.’ strongest allies in Latin America.
But the U.S. strong-arming has already had reverberations across the globe: China announced it would be accepting its own nationals who unlawfully crossed into the U.S. and get deported under the new administration, faced with a campaign trail threat of up to 60% tariffs.
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After President Gustavo Petro refused two flights full of Colombian migrants deported from the U.S., Trump immediately wrote in a Truth Social post he was imposing 25% tariffs on all goods from Colombia, a travel ban on Colombian government officials and other steep financial sanctions. He said the tariffs would reach as high as 50% by next week.
At first, Petro retaliated with his own 25% tariffs on U.S. goods coming from Colombia.
But amid intense political pressure from within his own government, the former Marxist guerrilla fighter acquiesced to all U.S. demands.
After the debacle, Trump posted a celebratory AI-generated image of himself dressed as a mobster next to a sign that read “FAFO.”
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro initially rejected migrant flights to his country. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara, File)
Experts say the Colombian leader was taken by surprise at the economic and diplomatic force by the U.S.
“The Biden administration was doing very little to push back on some of the really disruptive actions by the Petro government… including on security cooperation and countering drug trafficking,” said Andres Martinez-Fernandez, Latin America analyst at the Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center. “The Biden White House was giving them carte blanche in terms of not pushing back. That’s important to note for why the Colombian government felt so bold.”
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“He was taking a shot, probably not expecting the U.S. to come down as hard as it did, when it did, because I imagine he wanted to draw this out,” said Joseph Humire, executive director at the Center for a Secure Free Society, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit.
“If Petro was left to his own devices, I think he would have gone through with it. I don’t think he cared about the Colombian economy.”
“His own ministers, other sectors of the government, and obviously the private sector, probably pressured him a lot… and he relented.”
Former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris had often urged migrants not to come to the U.S. – but illegal immigration figures remain stubbornly high.
“I can say quite clearly: Don’t come,” Biden told ABC in an interview in 2021. But he continued: “We’re in the process of getting set up. Don’t leave your town or city or community.”
Harris told Guatemalans that same year: “I want to be clear to folks in this region who are thinking about making that dangerous trek to the United States-Mexico border: Do not come. Do not come.”
Donald J. Trump was be sworn in as the 47th president on Jan. 20, 2025. (Trump-Vance Transition Team)
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt released this image Friday, writing on X that “deportation flights have begun.” (White House)
But annual net migration – the number of people coming into the U.S. minus the number leaving – reached an all-time record average of 2.4 million population growth between 2021 and 2023.
Petro took on Trump over the weekend when he insisted he would not accept the return of migrants who were not treated with “dignity and respect” and who had arrived shackled or on military planes.
But after steep tariff threats “panicked” Colombia’s government and business leaders, the White House later announced Colombia had agreed to all U.S. conditions, including accepting migrants on military planes.
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Petro accepted 126 deportation flights last year, often with immigrants in shackles to prevent aviation emergencies, given that there are far more deportees than officers charged with accompanying them.
“It’s not the first time this has happened, and I think that was complete BS on [Petro’s] part,” said Humire.
“It was a pretty, I would say, poorly conceived effort by the Colombians on this front, and for numerous reasons, but, but in particular, because the Colombian economy and society and its security apparatus, defense apparatus, they’re also deeply integrated with the U.S. and dependent on the U.S.,” said Martinez-Fernandez.
Colombia is one of the top recipients of U.S. aid in the world due to a security partnership. Since 2000, Colombia has received more than $13 billion in foreign assistance from the U.S. Departments of Defense and State and from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), largely focused on counternarcotics efforts, continued implementation of the government’s 2016 peace accord with the FARC rebel group, integration of Venezuelan migrants and refugees, and environmental programs.
For years, Colombia had grown closer to the U.S., becoming a major non-NATO ally in 2022. But under Petro, relations between the two nations took a turn.
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Now, Colombia is intent on shrugging off U.S. influence and aligning itself with China, Russia and Iran, and deepening ties with Venezuela, which finds itself at odds with the U.S. under President Nicolas Maduro.
“Petro’s intent is clear: he is legitimizing the dictatorship in Venezuela and Cuba, taking Colombia into a different geopolitical orbit,” Humire said.
The spat caused a massive rift between Petro and his foreign minister, Luis Murillo, Colombian media outlets reported. Murillo, who’s reportedly been in contact with Trump special envoy Ric Grenell on the matter, spent the weekend phoning Republican U.S. lawmakers and plans to travel to the U.S. to smooth over relations with Colombia’s biggest trading partner. The U.S. accounts for 34% of Colombia’s total trade.
